Update 3 – 1:30am ET: Democrat Bill Owens Defeats Conservative Doug Hoffman in New York’s 23rd

Update 2 – 10:15pm ET: The AP and MSNBC have called New Jersey for Republican Chris Christie.

Update 1 – 8:40pm ET: The AP and MSNBC have called the Virginia gubernatorial race for Republican Bob McDonnell.

There are votes today for Governor of New Jersey and Virginia. Both races favor the Republican candidates. The Republicans naturally claim this is a referendum on Obama’s presidency. The Democrats naturally say Obama has absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with it.

As we’ve come to expect, both sides are attempting to exaggerate the significance of the votes for effect. A few bits of reality:

• Of course these races have something to do with Obama and the Democrats. The country is in economic despair – New Jersey is hit particularly hard and the inclination – if not the logic – is to blame the party in charge.
• There’s almost always a backlash against the party in power in these situations and with Democrats holding the White House and Congress, they’re catching the flack. And apart from the “cash for clunkers” program and the short-term boost to the real estate market, most people haven’t SEEN the government do much with the bazillion dollars they have for the recovery unless you count the Wall Street firms and Ford claiming record profits.
• Anything less than a blowout can probably be attributed to Obama’s charm and the effectiveness of his grassroots machine.
• As a Virginian, I can tell you that voting felt very light. Despite the media hoopla, I’d be amazed if 20% of the state voted. Go go democracy!

Also today is the odd duck of the special election in New York’s 23rd district. The recap is this: the district hasn’t elected a Democrat in 150 years so it’s fair to say it’s solid Republican territory. But the Republican candidate wasn’t Republican ENOUGH for the party’s national “moral” crusaders – she’s pro-choice and other sins of sensibility – so they chose to back the Conservative party candidate WHO DOESN’T EVEN LIVE THE IN THE DISTRICT. The Repubican dropped out when it was clear she wasn’t going to win and would simply play the spoiler. She endorsed the Democrat – I prefer to think she endorsed the only other candidate from the district. Rush Limbaugh, always the voice of reason, accused her of bestiality. Really.

This isn’t any indication of the broader national political story BUT it’s a weird test case for the Republicans to see if they need to be even MORE Republican and a fantastic illustration of everything wrong with the opposition party. By Republican, the “moral” crusaders mean superstitious, dogmatic, xenophobic and socially backward. As for their approach to Conservatism, I’ll quote Inigo Montoya from The Princess Bride, “You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means. ”

I’ll post the election results later this evening.

– Steve

Stumble it!

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