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538′s Final Election Projection: Obama 349, McCain 189

November 4th, 2008

The great FiveThirtyEight.com makes is final projection…

Our model projects that Obama will win all states won by John Kerry in 2004, in addition to Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, Florida and North Carolina, while narrowly losing Missouri and Indiana. These states total 353 electoral votes. Our official projection, which looks at these outcomes probabilistically — for instance, assigns North Carolina’s 15 electoral votes to Obama 59 percent of the time — comes up with an incrementally more conservative projection of 348.6 electoral votes.

Full story is here.

Also worth reading… FiveThirtEight’s Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls.

Stumble it!

This entry was posted on Tuesday, November 4th, 2008 at 3:15 pm and is filed under Blog. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

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