Despite the numbness we’re all feeling from this belabored, protracted contest the end is in sight. Today, North Carolina and Indiana voters head to the polls and may put an end to the Democratic race. There are still primaries to come but they are in states which are heavily favored for either Clinton or Obama and so there’s no drama for the media.

The biggest impact of today’s results is in how they change the media’s narrative.

If Obama wins both, it’s all-but-over for Clinton. She still won’t give up and will stay in the race until the convention BUT the media will declare it over. Obama’s lead will be even more daunting and all the momentum will be Obama’s through the final states. It’s a close-looking race but from a practical perspective, Obama’s lead is almost insurmountable. The media hasn’t declared it for two reasons: self-interest in a good story and the Clintons have a way of coming back. As long as she has something of a chance, the media will always cut the Clintons plenty of slack. And everything could change if…

If Clinton wins both, it’s big, big trouble for Obama. He’ll still have a delegate and popular vote lead but it means that Clinton’s negative attacks and gas-tax-holiday panderfest in North Carolina and Indiana will have shown clearly how vulnerable Obama’s high-road approach makes him. And the remaining Super Delegates will let that AND the enormous media backlash be their guide.

If they split (assuming North Carolina goes for Obama and Indiana for Clinton), we keep going to the convention but the net win will be for Clinton. Obama’s camp released a projection for the primaries and caucuses back in February and it’s been more accurate than any poll. It predicted Pennsylvania’s loss and anticipated Clinton’s popularity there. That list predicted Obama wins in both Indiana and North Carolina. If Obama loses either, it means their plans and their campaign are in trouble.
Probable media themes based on what happens tonight…

• If Obama wins both: Obama had a comeback, weathered all the controversies and will be the nominee. Unstoppable.
• If Clinton wins both: Obama is done. He can’t take the heat.
• If they split: The race continues exactly as it has until the convention or until the remaining undeclared Super Delegates get off their butts and announce. The split decision reinforces the idea that the dems are split on who to nominate. Clinton is viable and Obama can’t seal the deal.

I’ll be blogging tonight as the results come in.

Thanks again for the kind notes!

– Steve

Stumble it!

This entry was posted on Tuesday, May 6th, 2008 at 10:01 am and is filed under Blog. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.