Thursday | May 8th, 2008
I honestly didn’t expect such an apparent shift in the race.
Obama’s solid win in North Carolina and Clinton’s squeaker in Indiana has completely changed the media’s narrative of the race. It’s now over and Obama is the presumptive nominee.
I expected a split-decision to just keep the race going but after last night…
The media has run out of possible scenarios where the dynamics of the race can change. It can be said that they gave Clinton every chance to turn this around but it hasn’t happened.
I still don’t think she’ll drop out until it’s officially over. Obama is now just 15 Super Delegates short of catching Clinton in Super Delegate votes - the only measure in which she was ahead.
I had a few strips knocking Clinton’s gas-tax holiday nonsense and her Bush-like refusal to listen to experts but I just can’t kick her when she’s down. She’s run a horrible, mean-spirited and just plain nasty campaign but more than anything, it’s just sad. She sacrificed every principle to be President - she made every ugly compromise for political viability from Bush’s blank check for war to McCain’s gas-tax holiday and every pander in between - and in the end, it was for nothing.
– Steve
1:10am ET: Networks call Indiana for Clinton 51% to 49%. It looks like she won by about 22,000 votes.
12:00am ET: This has been a crazy night.
CBS called Indiana for Clinton at about 8:30pm ET. None of the other networks joined in.At the time, Clinton had about a 9-point lead. Since thn, the race has gotten closer and closer. As of 11:52pm ET, Clinton’s lead is down to 2% with just 20,000 votes separating them.
The latest news is that the outstanding votes are from the heavily Obama-favored county of Gary.
This didn’t stop Clinton from giving a victory speech.
We shall see…
8:00pm ET: North Carolina called for Obama.
The Indiana polls have closed and the networks are calling it “too close to call” although exit polls show Clinton with a four-point lead.
– Steve
Despite the numbness we’re all feeling from this belabored, protracted contest the end is in sight. Today, North Carolina and Indiana voters head to the polls and may put an end to the Democratic race. There are still primaries to come but they are in states which are heavily favored for either Clinton or Obama and so there’s no drama for the media.
The biggest impact of today’s results is in how they change the media’s narrative.
If Obama wins both, it’s all-but-over for Clinton. She still won’t give up and will stay in the race until the convention BUT the media will declare it over. Obama’s lead will be even more daunting and all the momentum will be Obama’s through the final states. It’s a close-looking race but from a practical perspective, Obama’s lead is almost insurmountable. The media hasn’t declared it for two reasons: self-interest in a good story and the Clintons have a way of coming back. As long as she has something of a chance, the media will always cut the Clintons plenty of slack. And everything could change if…
If Clinton wins both, it’s big, big trouble for Obama. He’ll still have a delegate and popular vote lead but it means that Clinton’s negative attacks and gas-tax-holiday panderfest in North Carolina and Indiana will have shown clearly how vulnerable Obama’s high-road approach makes him. And the remaining Super Delegates will let that AND the enormous media backlash be their guide.
If they split (assuming North Carolina goes for Obama and Indiana for Clinton), we keep going to the convention but the net win will be for Clinton. Obama’s camp released a projection for the primaries and caucuses back in February and it’s been more accurate than any poll. It predicted Pennsylvania’s loss and anticipated Clinton’s popularity there. That list predicted Obama wins in both Indiana and North Carolina. If Obama loses either, it means their plans and their campaign are in trouble.
Probable media themes based on what happens tonight…
I’ll be blogging tonight as the results come in.
Thanks again for the kind notes!
– Steve
If you’re wondering what life through the looking glass would be like…
– Steve
Josh Marshall of Talking Points Memo does his usual great job of looking at where we are…
Shades of Olbermann’s Clinton commentary from a month ago, the New York Times, which endorsed Clinton, writes in today’s editorial…
It is past time for Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton to acknowledge that the negativity, for which she is mostly responsible, does nothing but harm to her, her opponent, her party and the 2008 election.
If nothing else, self interest should push her in that direction. Mrs. Clinton did not get the big win in Pennsylvania that she needed to challenge the calculus of the Democratic race. It is true that Senator Barack Obama outspent her 2-to-1. But Mrs. Clinton and her advisers should mainly blame themselves, because, as the political operatives say, they went heavily negative and ended up squandering a good part of what was once a 20-point lead.
Fox News - it pains me to use those two words together - as well as NBC, ABC and CBS are calling Pennsylvania for Clinton.
As of 8:30pm ET, the Pennsylvania results are too close to call. The general sense from the MSNBC punditry seems to be shock.
I still stand by my prediction fro yesterday but it’s surprising that the state was called for Clinton as soon as the polls closed.
– Steve
It’s been a loooooong month and, as predicted, not much has changed. Clinton still has a sizable lead in Pennsylvania. The media and Team Clinton have done their best to amp up the drama and dice the data to make the primary seem closer than it is. It ain’t.
Clinton was ahead 20 points four weeks ago and, as expected, according to the latest polls, Obama’s made some gains but is still about 10 points back.
The pundits and blowhards have - just as they have since New Hampshire - blown hard. They claim that a Clinton victory needs to be at least double digits for her to stay in the race. They say a surprise Obama win would send her packing. Nonsense.
It’s not going to happen. Clinton will not quit. As long as she can win, there’s no way she’ll drop out.
Here’s what I expect:
Clinton wins with a margin that’s neither a blowout nor close. It’ll be a margin of victory in that nebulous and meaningless range where it can by spun by all sides like cotton candy - only with more empty calories. She’ll give a defiant, insufferable and cranky victory speech with strained “Rocky” references and restating her case that she can win the big states that matter. Clinton’s victory margin of actual votes will be at most 200,000 and not be enough to close Obama’s sizable popular vote lead - especially with upcoming contests which will likely cancel out any Clinton gains. Obama’s victory in urban areas may even give Barack a delegate victory in the state. Obama will give a great concession speech and raise a bazillion more dollars with a youtube clip of it. Clips of that speech will be turned into a music video by the weekend.
In the six hours of live coverage, the pundits will expel enough methane to accelerate global warming by a month and the only valuable bit will be Chuck Todd’s brief number-crunching segments on MSNBC. Pat Buchanan will embarrass himself. Again. Chris Matthews will provide insight into the voting of his home state with a bizarre cheesesteak reference. Keith Olbermann will make an extended sports metaphor - probably challenging Clinton’s Rocky reference with a more apt yet incredibly obscure boxer from the 20s. Eugene Robinson will go along with it.
The pundits will spend the evening trying to figure out how Obama lost a state he never had a lead in. Reverend Wright, ABC’s debate debacle, bitter clingers, Soccer Moms and Bowling Grandparents, yada yada. The reason is: Clinton is popular in Pennsylvania - it’s not any more complicated than that. The truth is Elvis would beat them both hands down if his name were on the ballot. But you can’t really fill up six hours saying that.
– Steve
